Decision making on the Balkan Route and the EU-Turkey Statement

Abstract

In 2015, there were higher than normal migration flows from Turkey to Greece and then via the Western Balkans to other European Union (EU) countries, leading to what has been termed Europe’s ‘refugee crisis’. The primary research question guiding this study is: How can the fluctuations in migration flows on the Balkans route from January 2015-December 2018 be explained? The core sub-questions guiding this research are: What explanations are there for the sharp decrease in the number of refugees and migrants on the Balkans route even before the EU-Turkey Statement came into effect? What are the decision making factors of refugees and migrants when choosing to leave Turkey before and after the EU-Turkey Statement? To what extent do policy interventions impact refugees and migrants’ decision-making regarding routes and destination choices? CONTENT: 1. Introduction 2. The Western Balkans Route to Europe and the EU-Turkey Statement 3. Conceptual framework for examining refugees and migrants' decision making 4. Methodology 5. Afghans' and Syrians' decision making in Turkey and on the Western Balkans Route 6. The interaction of policies and decision making 7. Conclusion